A Procedure for the determination of scenario earthquakes for seismic design based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

Hirose, Jiro*; Muramatsu, Ken; Okumura, Toshihiko*; Taki, Satoshi*

JAERI-Research 2002-009, 220 Pages, 2002/03

JAERI-Research-2002-009.pdf:13.31MB

This report presents procedures for the determination of Scenario Earthquakes for seismic design based on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Recently PSHA was recognized as an important basis to identify dominant earthquakes predicted to threaten the site in future. The identified earthquakes are called Probability-Based Scenario Earthquakes (PBSEs). The concept of PBSEs originates from the studies of US NRC and Ishikawa & Kameda. The objective of this study is to formulate the procedures to determine the PBSEs and, through this application, to demonstrate the feasibility of the application to seismic design. This report consists of three parts, namely, procedures to compile analytical conditions for PBSEs, an assessment to determine PBSEs for a model site using the Ishikawa's concept and examination of uncertainty involved in analytical conditions. The results imply that the procedures based on the Ishikawa's concept is a useful evaluation technique to determine scenario earthquakes for seismic design considering uncertainty involved in analytical conditions.